Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
